Published June 12, 2026 Updated 18 minutes ago By Anjum Ibrahim Growth rate for the outgoing fiscal year has been estimated at 3.7 percent, a rate lower than the budgeted 4.2 percent and lower than India’s by around 3 percent, but higher than the 3.2 percent in 2024-25, and 2.6 percent in 2022-23 – a rate rise critical if success was to be claimed in transitioning from pro-stablisation policies — the primary objective of the ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme — to growth promotion policies. Stabilisation was achieved through higher foreign exchange reserves of 17.19 billion dollars as of 29 May 2026, a figure cited by the Finance Minister, while the Survey noted reserves of 15.8 billion dollars on 8 May against end April reserves of 14.8 billion dollars. These reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan are largely debt based, with over 10 billion dollar roll-overs parked with the SBP by two friendly countries. Gross debt was 83 trillion rupees as of March 2026 posting a growth of 3.4 percent over the same period of the year before. Stabilisation requiring severely contractionary monetary and fiscal policies (considered to be anti-growth) continued in 2025-26 (IMF condition in all the three programme loans since 2019 on pain of programme suspension) and reports suggest they are likely to continue next fiscal year with over-ambitious tax targets as well as a policy rate likely to be upped as early as this coming Monday given the 15 June scheduled meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee as headline inflation rose by 0.8 percent in May and core inflation by one percentage point when compared to April 2026. The rise in average inflation July-April 2026 to 6.2 percent from 4.7 percent in the comparable period the year before was attributed to the Gulf crisis, a statistic that householders assess individually each time they go to the market or access a service; while 1.8 million new employment opportunities were linked to higher GDP growth. The unemployment rate was cited at 7 percent though independent economists argue that the rate is much higher – at almost 22 percent if the labour Force Survey is used as a yardstick. These two…